Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.38 – 79.59

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.2 ±11

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 10.26Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 29.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 21.67Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.4 ±11

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 26.54Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 48.59Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 4.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3893, 11179, 10121

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 11179, 10121

Auto

11.5 19%

Teleop

17.6 30%

Endgame

29.9 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8205, 5160, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 5160, 5190

Auto

16.3 21%

Teleop

43.0 56%

Endgame

17.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.4pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.2
Score range: 42–99
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 105.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.2Season APEX157.4

11.5Auto16.3

17.6Teleop43

29.9Endgame17.2

0Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	35
teleop	29	36
endgame	5	17
foul	5	0
total	64	88

Result

Final score

64 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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