Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.67 – 279.73

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.1 ±12.2

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 30.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 28.28Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 11.08Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.7 ±9.4

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 24.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 33.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 222.26Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5607, 5518, 3893

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.7 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 5518, 3893

Auto

17.9 28%

Teleop

28.9 46%

Endgame

16.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10077, 8205, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 8205, 9496

Auto

59.9 22%

Teleop

160.1 58%

Endgame

56.2 20%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.35 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.7pts

Blue projected score279.7pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.1
Score range: 49–301
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.1Season APEX397.7

17.9Auto59.9

28.9Teleop160.1

16.1Endgame56.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	85
teleop	4	153
endgame	11	16
foul	10	10
total	46	264

Result

Final score

46 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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