Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.27 – 133.33

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±10

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 1.52Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 216.22Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 18.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±11.7

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 35.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 53.3Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 44.58Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3893, 9496, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3893, 9496, 10077

Auto

72.6 31%

Teleop

127.5 55%

Endgame

32.8 14%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11179, 5160, 6242

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11179, 5160, 6242

Auto

20.9 15%

Teleop

71.7 53%

Endgame

42.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.3pts

Blue projected score133.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.9
Score range: 115–254
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368Season APEX175.5

72.6Auto20.9

127.5Teleop71.7

32.8Endgame42.9

43Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	29
teleop	184	41
endgame	106	38
foul	0	0
total	312	108

Result

Final score

312 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 50.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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