Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.93 – 57.51

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 5.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.7 ±13.9

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 5.87Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -3.78Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 18.84Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.6 ±11.7

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 8.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 16.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 32.63Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9296, 10260, 11161

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9296, 10260, 11161

Auto

16.6 92%

Teleop

0.2 1%

Endgame

1.3 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 10072, 8205

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 10072, 8205

Auto

15.6 30%

Teleop

27.8 54%

Endgame

8.3 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.9pts

Blue projected score57.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 3–76
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 68 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.7Season APEX191.6

16.6Auto15.6

0.2Teleop27.8

1.3Endgame8.3

21Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	12
teleop	0	20
endgame	0	16
foul	0	0
total	20	48

Result

Final score

20 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 5.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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