Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.41 – 74.01

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115 ±12.8

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 24.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -5.56Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX -14.49Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113 ±12.2

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 7.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 29.11Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 37.34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11353, 8758, 7443

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 8758, 7443

Auto

18.3 100%

Teleop

-7.1 0%

Endgame

-4.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5190, 10121, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5190, 10121, 5518

Auto

11.1 16%

Teleop

33.4 48%

Endgame

24.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score4.4pts

Blue projected score74pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: -15–93
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115Season APEX113

18.3Auto11.1

-7.1Teleop33.4

-4.8Endgame24.6

121Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	2	14
endgame	4	6
foul	0	15
total	19	55

Result

Final score

19 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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