Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.53 – 47.65

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.6 ±12.8

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 61.59Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9296TITANium

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 14.72Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 27.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169 ±11.2

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -5.04Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 29.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 23.28Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5160, 9296, 10072

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 9296, 10072

Auto

19.2 19%

Teleop

69.0 67%

Endgame

14.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10260, 5607, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10260, 5607, 6004

Auto

27.7 55%

Teleop

11.8 23%

Endgame

11.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score47.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.9
Score range: 30–122
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.6Season APEX169

19.2Auto27.7

69Teleop11.8

14.5Endgame11.3

34Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	20
teleop	12	34
endgame	21	19
foul	0	5
total	40	78

Result

Final score

40 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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