Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.08 – 79.52

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±9.8

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 10.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 18.14Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 174.89Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.2 ±11

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 67.92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 8.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 2.9Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8746, 8205, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8746, 8205, 9032

Auto

44.6 22%

Teleop

120.0 60%

Endgame

35.7 18%

Strengths

· 9032 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6500, 10248, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6500, 10248, 5190

Auto

17.4 22%

Teleop

50.2 63%

Endgame

12.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.1pts

Blue projected score79.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.6
Score range: 62–221
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.8Season APEX196.2

44.6Auto17.4

120Teleop50.2

35.7Endgame12.3

82Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	195	41
endgame	52	33
foul	0	15
total	283	107

Result

Final score

283 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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