Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.07 – 39.43

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 47.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.7 ±11

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 35.83Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5511Cortechs Robotics

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 1.1Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 39.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194 ±10.4

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX -7.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 46.04Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 1.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10302, 5511, 11179

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10302, 5511, 11179

Auto

14.5 19%

Teleop

27.1 36%

Endgame

33.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 5160, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 5160, 11353

Auto

16.1 42%

Teleop

23.1 60%

Endgame

-0.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.1pts

Blue projected score39.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.6
Score range: 21–94
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.7Season APEX194

14.5Auto16.1

27.1Teleop23.1

33.8Endgame-0.7

103Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	33
teleop	25	58
endgame	11	22
foul	0	0
total	54	113

Result

Final score

54 – 113

Prediction missed · off by 47.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree