Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.61 – 78.07

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±10.8

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 24.92Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 211.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX -4.51Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±10.4

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 30.57Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 18.19Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 29.31Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10121, 9496, 7443

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10121, 9496, 7443

Auto

61.6 28%

Teleop

120.4 54%

Endgame

40.8 18%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2682, 10077, 6888

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 10077, 6888

Auto

25.6 34%

Teleop

31.5 42%

Endgame

18.0 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.6pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.5
Score range: 60–250
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 98.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.7Season APEX241.7

61.6Auto25.6

120.4Teleop31.5

40.8Endgame18

46Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	7
teleop	146	44
endgame	70	31
foul	0	5
total	260	87

Result

Final score

260 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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