Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.05 – 59.04

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.2 ±12.2

8205Mind Over Metal

Season APEX 56Event APEX 21.49Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 6.1Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX 1.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.8 ±12.4

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -6.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 25.19Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 39.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8205, 8758, 5190

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8205, 8758, 5190

Auto

20.2 73%

Teleop

11.3 41%

Endgame

-4.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10260, 6004, 5518

/ 100 compat

Projected

59 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10260, 6004, 5518

Auto

14.7 25%

Teleop

29.1 50%

Endgame

14.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.1pts

Blue projected score59pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30
Score range: 11–77
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.2Season APEX149.8

20.2Auto14.7

11.3Teleop29.1

-4Endgame14.5

153Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	26
teleop	12	30
endgame	9	18
foul	0	0
total	32	74

Result

Final score

32 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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