Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.43 – 219.92

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.8 ±11.7

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 38.95Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6888Foothills Robotics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 13.18Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 20.3Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.2 ±10.8

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 168.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10072WhirlyBots

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 32.78Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 18.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5160, 6888, 11161

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 6888, 11161

Auto

19.7 28%

Teleop

41.9 59%

Endgame

9.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9496, 10072, 5607

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9496, 10072, 5607

Auto

49.3 23%

Teleop

107.6 51%

Endgame

54.9 26%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score219.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -147.5
Score range: 55–237
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 96.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.8Season APEX415.2

19.7Auto49.3

41.9Teleop107.6

9.8Endgame54.9

0Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	85
teleop	73	168
endgame	35	60
foul	5	0
total	125	313

Result

Final score

125 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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