Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.26 – 26.37

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.9 ±12.2

6242Chaos Theory

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 76.19Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5190Falcon Fury

Season APEX 32.5Event APEX -3.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -10.49Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±11.7

5607Team Firewall

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 21.85Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX -1.34Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7443Jag-Wires

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX 5.86Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6242, 5190, 10248

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6242, 5190, 10248

Auto

16.0 25%

Teleop

19.7 31%

Endgame

27.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5607, 8738, 7443

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5607, 8738, 7443

Auto

14.8 72%

Teleop

11.8 57%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.3pts

Blue projected score26.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.9
Score range: 10–78
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 91.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.9Season APEX186.9

16Auto14.8

19.7Teleop11.8

27.3Endgame-6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	42	9
endgame	13	12
foul	0	0
total	75	34

Result

Final score

75 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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