Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
139.59 – 0
86%14%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
32 – 35
Prediction missed · off by 71.3 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 77.08Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 60.31Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 2.2Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.8 ±11.6
Season APEX 22.5Event APEX -7.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42Event APEX 14.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 26.3Event APEX -13.91Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2682, 11161, 8746
88
/ 100 compatProjected
139.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 2682, 11161, 8746
Auto
30.9 22%
Teleop
66.4 48%
Endgame
40.5 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5511, 11353, 3893
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-6.7 pts
~0.5 RP (district)
Teams: 5511, 11353, 3893
Auto
15.2 0%
Teleop
-19.2 100%
Endgame
-14.9 79%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.5
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score139.6pts
Blue projected score-6.7pts
Red win probability86%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 20%, blue 19%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 139.6
- Score range
- -17–157
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
237.3Season APEX90.8
30.9Auto15.2
66.4Teleop-19.2
40.5Endgame-14.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 20 |
| teleop | 5 | 12 |
| endgame | 12 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 32 | 35 |
Result
Final score
32 – 35
Prediction missed · off by 71.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.