Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.03 – 28.79

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.3 ±10.4

10248Iron Byrds

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 16.35Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 26.52Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 68.16Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114.4 ±12.8

10260RoboJags

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 7.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8746Knights

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 18.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8758Tar-Robo Turtles

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 3.09Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10248, 2682, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10248, 2682, 5160

Auto

22.9 22%

Teleop

49.5 47%

Endgame

33.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10260, 8746, 8758

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10260, 8746, 8758

Auto

15.4 53%

Teleop

10.8 37%

Endgame

2.8 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111pts

Blue projected score28.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.2
Score range: 8–132
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 117.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.3Season APEX114.4

22.9Auto15.4

49.5Teleop10.8

33.4Endgame2.8

56Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	42	9
endgame	11	0
foul	0	0
total	76	23

Result

Final score

76 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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