Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

405.85 – 150.96

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.4 ±8.8

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 174.89Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 5.85Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 225.11Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±11

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 67.61Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3893K-T Extinction

Season APEX 26.3Event APEX 8.05Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6500GearCats

Season APEX 130.2Event APEX 75.3Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9032, 10121, 9496

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9032, 10121, 9496

Auto

81.1 20%

Teleop

229.4 57%

Endgame

90.3 23%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 3893, 6500

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 3893, 6500

Auto

19.2 13%

Teleop

88.7 60%

Endgame

39.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score405.9pts

Blue projected score151pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254.9
Score range: 131–426
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 113.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.4Season APEX225.4

81.1Auto19.2

229.4Teleop88.7

90.3Endgame39.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	35
teleop	247	89
endgame	91	65
foul	15	0
total	391	189

Result

Final score

391 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Match videos

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