Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.63 – 89.01

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±11

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 3.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 41.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 22.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±10.4

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 47.37Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 24.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 16.98Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 11179, 4861

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3459, 11179, 4861

Auto

15.9 24%

Teleop

33.7 50%

Endgame

17.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4828, 587, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4828, 587, 3336

Auto

19.1 22%

Teleop

45.4 52%

Endgame

22.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.6pts

Blue projected score89pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.4
Score range: 55–102
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 70.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.4Season APEX251.5

15.9Auto19.1

33.7Teleop45.4

17.2Endgame22.3

53Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	14
teleop	56	57
endgame	24	35
foul	0	0
total	108	106

Result

Final score

108 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 28.7 pts

Match videos

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