Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.74 – 41.21

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 41.24Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 46.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 15.27Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.2 ±11

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 16.69Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 2.31Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 22.21Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 4795, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 4795, 11353

Auto

15.9 16%

Teleop

60.7 59%

Endgame

25.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9788, 5919, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 5919, 10302

Auto

10.4 27%

Teleop

18.7 48%

Endgame

9.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.7pts

Blue projected score41.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.5
Score range: 29–115
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 69.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.8Season APEX129.2

15.9Auto10.4

60.7Teleop18.7

25.5Endgame9.8

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	23
teleop	54	32
endgame	47	27
foul	0	0
total	136	82

Result

Final score

136 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Match videos

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