Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.91 – 36.71

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±11.7

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 31.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 6.8Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 25.35Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.2 ±11

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 15.31Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 20.35Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 1.05Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5160, 6240, 6502

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 6240, 6502

Auto

15.0 22%

Teleop

31.4 47%

Endgame

20.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9788, 10302, 5919

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 10302, 5919

Auto

9.5 28%

Teleop

13.6 40%

Endgame

10.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.9pts

Blue projected score36.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.2
Score range: 25–76
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 67.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.9Season APEX129.2

15Auto9.5

31.4Teleop13.6

20.7Endgame10.6

13Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	16
teleop	25	45
endgame	18	11
foul	0	0
total	57	72

Result

Final score

57 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.