Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86 – 73.53

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 10.1Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 40.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 35.55Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±10.4

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 41.95Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 19.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 11.92Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11353, 4795, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

86 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 4795, 8429

Auto

11.5 13%

Teleop

52.4 60%

Endgame

23.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4828, 587, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4828, 587, 3336

Auto

20.3 28%

Teleop

33.0 46%

Endgame

18.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86pts

Blue projected score73.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.5
Score range: 62–98
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 66.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.8Season APEX251.5

11.5Auto20.3

52.4Teleop33

23.9Endgame18.2

38Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	104	67
endgame	34	0
foul	10	5
total	184	90

Result

Final score

184 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Match videos

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