Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.48 – 49.21

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±11

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 2.64Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 42.77Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 23.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±11.7

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 18.97Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 17.42Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.82Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 11179, 4861

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3459, 11179, 4861

Auto

16.3 24%

Teleop

34.2 51%

Endgame

16.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11285, 9789, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 9789, 3229

Auto

16.1 34%

Teleop

21.5 45%

Endgame

10.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.5pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 37–80
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 66.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.4Season APEX153.2

16.3Auto16.1

34.2Teleop21.5

16.6Endgame10

50Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	34
teleop	46	6
endgame	20	0
foul	0	0
total	82	40

Result

Final score

82 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts

Match videos

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