Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.21 – 66.66

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 44.95Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 51.39Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 19.87Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.2 ±11

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 24.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 11.17Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 31.09Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8429, 4795, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 4795, 11353

Auto

18.5 17%

Teleop

61.6 56%

Endgame

30.8 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9788, 5919, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 5919, 10302

Auto

15.2 24%

Teleop

29.8 47%

Endgame

17.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.2pts

Blue projected score66.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.6
Score range: 54–129
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 73.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.8Season APEX129.2

18.5Auto15.2

61.6Teleop29.8

30.8Endgame17.9

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	31
teleop	113	74
endgame	18	36
foul	0	0
total	170	141

Result

Final score

170 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Match videos

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