Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.79 – 62.52

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.2 ±11

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 18.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 4.61Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 24.61Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.1 ±11

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 25.56Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 19.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 17.64Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9788, 5919, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 5919, 10302

Auto

12.5 27%

Teleop

21.0 46%

Endgame

12.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 9559, 10354

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 9559, 10354

Auto

11.0 20%

Teleop

33.3 59%

Endgame

11.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score62.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.7
Score range: 35–76
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 70.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.2Season APEX153.1

12.5Auto11

21Teleop33.3

12.5Endgame11.7

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	69	40
endgame	18	8
foul	5	0
total	119	64

Result

Final score

119 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts

Match videos

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