Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 38.45
38%62%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
53 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 70.7Event APEX -1.41Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 6.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX -6.35Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±11.2
Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 8.77Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.7Event APEX -4.32Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11179, 10302, 8429
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-1.4 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 11179, 10302, 8429
Auto
9.5 0%
Teleop
-12.0 100%
Endgame
-1.3 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 14%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 435, 4561, 11285
53
/ 100 compatProjected
38.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 435, 4561, 11285
Auto
4.1 11%
Teleop
32.4 89%
Endgame
-0.1 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 14%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score-1.4pts
Blue projected score38.4pts
Red win probability38%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 14%, blue 10%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -38.4
- Score range
- -7–45
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
315.9Season APEX347.1
9.5Auto4.1
-12Teleop32.4
-1.3Endgame-0.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 20 |
| teleop | 22 | 31 |
| endgame | 11 | 1 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 53 | 67 |
Result
Final score
53 – 67
Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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