Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.42 – 16.71

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±11.7

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 37.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 5.83Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 9.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.8 ±11

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 3.67Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 0.37Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 12.67Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4795, 6240, 4861

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4795, 6240, 4861

Auto

7.3 14%

Teleop

35.8 71%

Endgame

7.6 15%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10354, 10121, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10354, 10121, 2059

Auto

8.0 49%

Teleop

1.7 10%

Endgame

6.7 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.4pts

Blue projected score16.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.7
Score range: 11–58
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 34.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290Season APEX176.8

7.3Auto8

35.8Teleop1.7

7.6Endgame6.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	25	36
endgame	39	6
foul	0	0
total	76	57

Result

Final score

76 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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