Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.45 – 48.79

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±10.4

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -3.81Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 26.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 59.19Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±12.2

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 27.94Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 2.03Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 18.82Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 5160, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3459, 5160, 2059

Auto

11.6 14%

Teleop

47.7 58%

Endgame

23.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 5919, 9789

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 5919, 9789

Auto

17.4 35%

Teleop

22.5 45%

Endgame

9.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.5pts

Blue projected score48.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 37–93
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 65.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.8Season APEX161.9

11.6Auto17.4

47.7Teleop22.5

23.4Endgame9.9

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	25
teleop	93	9
endgame	33	5
foul	0	0
total	159	39

Result

Final score

159 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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