Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.42 – 72.09

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.9 ±10.4

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 40.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 11.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 25.78Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.1 ±11

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 39.67Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 16.23Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 16.19Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11179, 3229, 8738

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11179, 3229, 8738

Auto

12.3 16%

Teleop

46.2 59%

Endgame

19.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4828, 11285, 10354

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4828, 11285, 10354

Auto

21.3 30%

Teleop

32.9 47%

Endgame

16.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score72.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 60–89
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 65.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.9Season APEX165.1

12.3Auto21.3

46.2Teleop32.9

19.2Endgame16

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	44	50
endgame	22	17
foul	15	15
total	104	110

Result

Final score

104 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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