Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.11 – 43.51

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.6 ±12.4

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 64.73Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 5.78Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 6.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.9 ±11.7

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 7.38Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 17.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 19.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4561, 4816, 11161

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 4816, 11161

Auto

18.4 27%

Teleop

41.6 60%

Endgame

8.9 13%

Strengths

· 4561 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6240, 9788, 587

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6240, 9788, 587

Auto

12.4 31%

Teleop

17.5 43%

Endgame

10.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.1pts

Blue projected score43.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 32–89
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 64.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.6Season APEX192.9

18.4Auto12.4

41.6Teleop17.5

8.9Endgame10.6

17Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	7
teleop	58	30
endgame	17	17
foul	0	0
total	112	54

Result

Final score

112 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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