Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.84 – 49.31

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±10.4

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 6.52Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 60.93Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.6 ±11.7

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 16.88Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 17.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 15.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11353, 2059, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 2059, 3229

Auto

18.5 22%

Teleop

45.2 55%

Endgame

18.8 23%

Strengths

· 2059 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10302, 9789, 11285

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10302, 9789, 11285

Auto

20.8 42%

Teleop

22.6 46%

Endgame

5.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.8pts

Blue projected score49.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 38–91
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 63.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.7Season APEX149.6

18.5Auto20.8

45.2Teleop22.6

18.8Endgame5.7

99Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	48	36
endgame	15	14
foul	0	0
total	86	70

Result

Final score

86 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 13.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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