Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.7 – 87.67

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257 ±10.5

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 14.13Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -6.31Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 27.88Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.7 ±10.5

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 17.89Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 40.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 28.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10354, 3459, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10354, 3459, 8429

Auto

3.4 10%

Teleop

19.0 55%

Endgame

12.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9042, 4795, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9042, 4795, 5160

Auto

8.4 9%

Teleop

50.8 57%

Endgame

30.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.7pts

Blue projected score87.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52
Score range: 25–99
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 61.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257Season APEX350.7

3.4Auto8.4

19Teleop50.8

12Endgame30

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	62	42
endgame	4	32
foul	0	0
total	93	94

Result

Final score

93 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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