Qualification · Qualification 50
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
35.63 – 52.18
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
56 – 57
Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.3 ±12.2
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 12.9Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 24.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -1.32Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.1 ±12.8
Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 6.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 44.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 1.83Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3336, 4861, 10072
45
/ 100 compatProjected
35.6 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 3336, 4861, 10072
Auto
11.7 32%
Teleop
15.6 43%
Endgame
9.2 25%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 7%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11161, 11179, 435
54
/ 100 compatProjected
52.2 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 11161, 11179, 435
Auto
15.5 33%
Teleop
25.5 54%
Endgame
6.6 14%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 7%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score35.6pts
Blue projected score52.2pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 7%, blue 6%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -16.5
- Score range
- 25–63
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
132.3Season APEX163.1
11.7Auto15.5
15.6Teleop25.5
9.2Endgame6.6
48Consistency36
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 18 |
| teleop | 5 | 25 |
| endgame | 29 | 14 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 56 | 57 |
Result
Final score
56 – 57
Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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