Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.76 – 67.29

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

7 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.5 ±11.7

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 17.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 19.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 3.79Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114.4 ±11

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.21Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 25.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.49Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11285, 10121, 11161

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 10121, 11161

Auto

12.8 33%

Teleop

15.3 39%

Endgame

10.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9559, 4861, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9559, 4861, 11353

Auto

20.3 33%

Teleop

28.0 45%

Endgame

14.1 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.8pts

Blue projected score67.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.5
Score range: 27–81
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 39 vs event baseline 78.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.5Season APEX114.4

12.8Auto20.3

15.3Teleop28

10.7Endgame14.1

24Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	7
teleop	0	17
endgame	0	8
foul	0	0
total	7	32

Result

Final score

7 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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