Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.03 – 101.34

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±12.8

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 60.36Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 5.52Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 5.15Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.9 ±9.8

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 54.03Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 27.05Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 20.26Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2059, 4816, 6240

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2059, 4816, 6240

Auto

15.7 22%

Teleop

44.2 63%

Endgame

10.7 15%

Strengths

· 2059 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4561, 8738, 10121

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4561, 8738, 10121

Auto

18.7 19%

Teleop

64.9 65%

Endgame

16.2 16%

Strengths

· 4561 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71pts

Blue projected score101.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.3
Score range: 60–112
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 59.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.5Season APEX356.9

15.7Auto18.7

44.2Teleop64.9

10.7Endgame16.2

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	13
teleop	64	72
endgame	22	43
foul	0	15
total	108	143

Result

Final score

108 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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