Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.31 – 47.03

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.8 ±11.7

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 22.49Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 10.06Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 1.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±11.7

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX 0.2Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 3.18Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 43.65Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6502, 587, 11161

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 587, 11161

Auto

14.3 44%

Teleop

7.6 23%

Endgame

10.7 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5919, 435, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

47 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5919, 435, 4795

Auto

2.3 5%

Teleop

31.9 74%

Endgame

9.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.3pts

Blue projected score47pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.7
Score range: 23–58
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 59.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.8Season APEX312.9

14.3Auto2.3

7.6Teleop31.9

10.7Endgame9

50Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	52	6
endgame	14	19
foul	0	0
total	83	36

Result

Final score

83 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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