Qualification · Qualification 46
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
49.63 – 44.47
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
62 – 110
Prediction missed · off by 39 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 96.3 ±13.3
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 20.16Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 5.66Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 23.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218 ±11.7
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -6.05Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 21.56Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 28.96Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9789, 6240, 4861
56
/ 100 compatProjected
49.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 9789, 6240, 4861
Auto
15.0 30%
Teleop
22.5 45%
Endgame
12.8 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 6%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10072, 8738, 4828
53
/ 100 compatProjected
44.5 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 10072, 8738, 4828
Auto
9.2 20%
Teleop
23.6 51%
Endgame
13.1 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 6%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.17
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score49.6pts
Blue projected score44.5pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 6%, blue 16%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 5.2
- Score range
- 33–61
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
96.3Season APEX218
15Auto9.2
22.5Teleop23.6
12.8Endgame13.1
46Consistency33
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 20 |
| teleop | 32 | 77 |
| endgame | 7 | 13 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 62 | 110 |
Result
Final score
62 – 110
Prediction missed · off by 39 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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