Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

11.01 – 47.74

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.7 ±12.2

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX -2.74Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -1.93Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 15.68Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±11.2

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 10.36Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 29.97Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 7.41Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5919, 11161, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

11 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5919, 11161, 3229

Auto

2.2 28%

Teleop

-4.7 0%

Endgame

10.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11353, 8429, 4816

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11353, 8429, 4816

Auto

13.2 27%

Teleop

29.0 59%

Endgame

7.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11pts

Blue projected score47.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.7
Score range: 0–59
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 59.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.7Season APEX264.1

2.2Auto13.2

-4.7Teleop29

10.5Endgame7.2

52Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	18	22
endgame	3	5
foul	0	0
total	36	44

Result

Final score

36 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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