Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.26 – 14.77

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±12.2

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 49.04Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 7.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 8.76Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.8 ±12.8

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 15.96Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -0.45Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX -0.74Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2059, 9789, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2059, 9789, 9042

Auto

18.0 27%

Teleop

38.9 59%

Endgame

9.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 6240, 435

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 6240, 435

Auto

9.7 72%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

3.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score14.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.5
Score range: 5–75
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 58.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.7Season APEX177.8

18Auto9.7

38.9Teleop0

9.3Endgame3.7

42Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	16
teleop	106	56
endgame	43	0
foul	0	0
total	185	72

Result

Final score

185 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 88.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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