Qualification · Qualification 41
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
56.42 – 3.91
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
90 – 40
Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 10.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 18.68Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 27.71Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 15.84Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -4.85Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -7.08Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 587, 10121, 8429
62
/ 100 compatProjected
56.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 587, 10121, 8429
Auto
10.0 18%
Teleop
31.7 57%
Endgame
14.3 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3229, 10072, 3459
8
/ 100 compatProjected
3.9 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3229, 10072, 3459
Auto
-0.9 0%
Teleop
-2.6 0%
Endgame
7.6 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 0.78
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score56.4pts
Blue projected score3.9pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 11%, blue 6%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.5
- Score range
- -6–66
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
343.6Season APEX153.9
10Auto-0.9
31.7Teleop-2.6
14.3Endgame7.6
41Consistency102
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 10 |
| teleop | 41 | 20 |
| endgame | 28 | 10 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 90 | 40 |
Result
Final score
90 – 40
Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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