Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.38 – 42.68

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.9 ±9.8

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 12.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 35.12Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 19.44Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.5 ±12.2

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 9.25Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 8.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 24.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11285, 4795, 8738

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 4795, 8738

Auto

2.9 4%

Teleop

53.6 79%

Endgame

11.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4816, 9788, 4861

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4816, 9788, 4861

Auto

8.3 21%

Teleop

16.7 42%

Endgame

14.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.4pts

Blue projected score42.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.7
Score range: 33–77
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 53.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.9Season APEX115.5

2.9Auto8.3

53.6Teleop16.7

11.2Endgame14.4

0Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	87	41
endgame	46	16
foul	0	0
total	151	77

Result

Final score

151 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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