Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.79 – 39.11

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.1 ±10.7

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 57.99Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 1.28Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 69.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.1 ±12.8

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX -7.4Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 16.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4795, 4816, 4561

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4795, 4816, 4561

Auto

23.4 19%

Teleop

71.9 59%

Endgame

26.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5160, 435, 9789

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5160, 435, 9789

Auto

14.3 37%

Teleop

16.4 42%

Endgame

8.2 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.8pts

Blue projected score39.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.7
Score range: 25–143
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 78.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.1Season APEX164.1

23.4Auto14.3

71.9Teleop16.4

26.7Endgame8.2

4Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	5
teleop	91	11
endgame	11	4
foul	5	0
total	118	20

Result

Final score

118 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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