Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.06 – 42.53

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.9 ±12.2

435Robodogs

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 13.29Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 16.44Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 25.33Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 125.7 ±11.6

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX -5.68Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX 1.06Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 47.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 435, 9042, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 435, 9042, 3336

Auto

15.4 31%

Teleop

33.7 68%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5919, 10354, 11179

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5919, 10354, 11179

Auto

11.7 30%

Teleop

17.6 46%

Endgame

9.1 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.1pts

Blue projected score42.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.5
Score range: 33–65
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 53.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.9Season APEX125.7

15.4Auto11.7

33.7Teleop17.6

0.3Endgame9.1

33Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	33
teleop	6	47
endgame	3	26
foul	0	0
total	24	106

Result

Final score

24 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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