Qualification · Qualification 38
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
13.18 – 32.71
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
22 – 69
Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 130.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -7.65Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 10.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39Event APEX 10.37Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.8 ±10.4
Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 17.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 2.8Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10072, 9789, 9559
12
/ 100 compatProjected
13.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 10072, 9789, 9559
Auto
8.0 65%
Teleop
-4.0 0%
Endgame
8.4 68%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 10%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10121, 10302, 3229
44
/ 100 compatProjected
32.7 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 10121, 10302, 3229
Auto
12.3 35%
Teleop
14.6 41%
Endgame
8.3 24%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 10%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score13.2pts
Blue projected score32.7pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 10%, blue 6%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -19.5
- Score range
- 3–43
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
130.9Season APEX154.8
8Auto12.3
-4Teleop14.6
8.4Endgame8.3
47Consistency75
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 17 |
| teleop | 1 | 32 |
| endgame | 1 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 22 | 69 |
Result
Final score
22 – 69
Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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