Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.33 – 88.84

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129 ±12.8

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 2.84Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 4.15Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5160Chargers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 14.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.8 ±10.4

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 23.95Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 10.7Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 54.19Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6240, 11161, 5160

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6240, 11161, 5160

Auto

7.8 40%

Teleop

3.6 18%

Endgame

8.1 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6502, 11285, 2059

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6502, 11285, 2059

Auto

16.3 18%

Teleop

50.2 56%

Endgame

22.9 26%

Strengths

· 2059 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score21.3pts

Blue projected score88.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.5
Score range: 12–98
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 52.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129Season APEX261.8

7.8Auto16.3

3.6Teleop50.2

8.1Endgame22.9

15Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	34
teleop	21	59
endgame	22	21
foul	0	0
total	50	114

Result

Final score

50 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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