Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.18 – 42.24

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±9.8

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 9.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 11.18Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 33.14Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.2 ±9.8

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 8.19Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 16.29Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 17.76Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 587, 11353, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 587, 11353, 4795

Auto

13.4 24%

Teleop

30.4 55%

Endgame

11.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8738, 3336, 8429

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 3336, 8429

Auto

6.1 14%

Teleop

29.4 68%

Endgame

7.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.2pts

Blue projected score42.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 33–63
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 51.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.8Season APEX316.2

13.4Auto6.1

30.4Teleop29.4

11Endgame7.7

77Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	41	93
endgame	14	26
foul	0	0
total	70	131

Result

Final score

70 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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