Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

5.09 – 19.65

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.1 ±12.2

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 10.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX -7.84Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 2.14Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.6 ±11.7

11285Purple Autobots

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 3.41Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 17.95Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6240Eagles of the Knight

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -1.71Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9788, 10354, 9789

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9788, 10354, 9789

Auto

8.4 100%

Teleop

-3.1 0%

Endgame

0.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11285, 4828, 6240

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11285, 4828, 6240

Auto

8.4 38%

Teleop

3.4 15%

Endgame

10.5 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score5.1pts

Blue projected score19.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: -4–29
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 51.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.1Season APEX157.6

8.4Auto8.4

-3.1Teleop3.4

0.5Endgame10.5

131Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	17
teleop	38	22
endgame	22	7
foul	15	0
total	85	46

Result

Final score

85 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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