Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.4 – 43.59

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.8 ±11

8738Slice

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 11.61Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9559EagleTron

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.66Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9042SOARIN

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 16.13Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±11.1

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 17.85Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4861Beastbots

Season APEX 33.4Event APEX 30Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5919JoCo RoBos

Season APEX 24Event APEX -4.26Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8738, 9559, 9042

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8738, 9559, 9042

Auto

5.8 16%

Teleop

27.1 76%

Endgame

2.7 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 4861, 5919

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 4861, 5919

Auto

4.7 11%

Teleop

20.2 48%

Endgame

17.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.4pts

Blue projected score43.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.2
Score range: 30–53
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 50.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.8Season APEX244.1

5.8Auto4.7

27.1Teleop20.2

2.7Endgame17.2

75Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	35	34
endgame	10	26
foul	0	0
total	59	73

Result

Final score

59 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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