Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.87 – 88.92

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.8 ±10.4

3459Team PyroTech

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -2.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 20.84Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11353Visionary Sparks

Season APEX 42Event APEX 10.76Rank 22Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±11.7

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 60.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4816Gadget Girls

Season APEX 35.4Event APEX 15.65Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 13.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3459, 6502, 11353

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3459, 6502, 11353

Auto

11.2 40%

Teleop

13.4 48%

Endgame

3.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11179, 4816, 587

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11179, 4816, 587

Auto

23.7 27%

Teleop

50.2 57%

Endgame

13.9 16%

Strengths

· 11179 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.9pts

Blue projected score88.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60
Score range: 20–98
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 50.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.8Season APEX228.8

11.2Auto23.7

13.4Teleop50.2

3.6Endgame13.9

91Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	18	29
endgame	12	20
foul	0	5
total	47	72

Result

Final score

47 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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