Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.6 – 68.13

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±9.8

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 50.32Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4561TerrorBytes

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 48.94Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3336Zimanators

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 14.34Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.8 ±11.2

11161SkyForge Griffins

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 9.94Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 37.64Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 20.55Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2059, 4561, 3336

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2059, 4561, 3336

Auto

19.2 19%

Teleop

65.5 63%

Endgame

18.9 18%

Strengths

· 2059 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11161, 4795, 3229

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11161, 4795, 3229

Auto

4.2 6%

Teleop

36.9 55%

Endgame

26.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.5
Score range: 59–123
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 48.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.6Season APEX331.8

19.2Auto4.2

65.5Teleop36.9

18.9Endgame26.2

45Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	5
teleop	86	23
endgame	13	12
foul	0	5
total	139	45

Result

Final score

139 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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