Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.27 – 88.21

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.5 ±10.4

10121TMSA MechaTiger

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 8.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2059The Hitchhikers

Season APEX 111.6Event APEX 39.33Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 42.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.2 ±11.2

9789Platinum Ringleaders

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 14.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 53.01Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9788R.A.M.

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 20.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10121, 2059, 11179

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10121, 2059, 11179

Auto

16.4 18%

Teleop

50.3 55%

Endgame

24.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9789, 4795, 9788

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9789, 4795, 9788

Auto

5.8 7%

Teleop

57.1 65%

Endgame

24.5 28%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.3pts

Blue projected score88.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.1
Score range: 79–99
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 47.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.5Season APEX319.2

16.4Auto5.8

50.3Teleop57.1

24.7Endgame24.5

27Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	8
teleop	98	5
endgame	29	10
foul	5	0
total	162	23

Result

Final score

162 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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