Qualification · Qualification 25
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
66.64 – 24.75
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
73 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 3.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.2 ±11.2
Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 0.78Rank 29Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 17.89Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 47.97Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -1.72Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 13.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 12.64Rank 11Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6240, 3229, 4561
76
/ 100 compatProjected
66.6 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 6240, 3229, 4561
Auto
19.1 31%
Teleop
23.8 39%
Endgame
18.8 30%
Strengths
- · 4561 anchors offense
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 8%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3459, 11161, 3336
39
/ 100 compatProjected
24.8 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3459, 11161, 3336
Auto
3.0 13%
Teleop
15.2 66%
Endgame
5.0 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 8%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 0.85
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score66.6pts
Blue projected score24.8pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 8%, blue 7%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 41.9
- Score range
- 16–76
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
325.2Season APEX122.3
19.1Auto3
23.8Teleop15.2
18.8Endgame5
42Consistency69
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 8 |
| teleop | 44 | 2 |
| endgame | 10 | 1 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 73 | 26 |
Result
Final score
73 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 3.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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