Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.25 – 94.12

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188 ±11

10354Sting

Season APEX 31Event APEX -3.06Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6502DARC SIDE

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 14.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10302Byte Force

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 0.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.5 ±9.3

8429Valence Robotics

Season APEX 186.7Event APEX 10.29Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11179The Power of Friendship

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 41.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4795Eastbots

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 42.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10354, 6502, 10302

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10354, 6502, 10302

Auto

13.4 94%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

4.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8429, 11179, 4795

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8429, 11179, 4795

Auto

11.6 13%

Teleop

52.9 57%

Endgame

27.8 30%

Strengths

· 4795 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.2pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.9
Score range: 4–102
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 45.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188Season APEX490.5

13.4Auto11.6

-3.3Teleop52.9

4.2Endgame27.8

54Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	8
teleop	17	106
endgame	4	30
foul	0	0
total	40	144

Result

Final score

40 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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